New NFL Kickoff Rule Producing Some Twists & Turns
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Back in March, when the 2011 NFL Season was still a question mark in the minds of both locked-out players and worried fans, NFL owners quietly voted to change the rules of how kickoffs are conducted. They moved the spot of the ball up five yards to the 35-yard line while restricting the running start of coverage units to five yards behind the ball.
The owners had their reasons. First and foremost, they wanted to limit injuries caused by head-on collisions at full speed. Giving kickers a shorter field should mean more balls sailing into the end zone. That should in turn result in more touchbacks and a decrease in injuries caused by contact.
As it turns out, they were mostly right. During the full 2010 season, returns were attempted on 84% of all kickoffs. During 2011 through Week 7, that figure was down to 49%. In other words, fewer than half of all kickoffs are being returned.
But here’s where the statistics take a twist. Throughout 2010, for all teams combined, the average yardage per return was 22.3 yards. So far in 2011, the average run back has been 24.2 yards—an increase of 8.5%.
Also, in all of 2010, only six of the 32 teams had a kickoff return of 100 yards or longer. Already, five teams have done so in 2011, and the season isn’t even half over.
Several things are happening to the kicking game that the owners may not have anticipated. For one, return specialists are showing they are not afraid to field the ball in the end zone and run it out. Don’t try telling Chicago’s Devin Hester, Green Bay’s Randall Cobb or Ted Ginn of San Francisco to take a knee when a touchdown is just a 100-yard dash away.
Another factor contributing to longer returns is a letdown in coverage by kicking units. Special teams aren’t getting enough opportunities to make stops. When there’s only a 50% chance of action, they don’t bring the same reckless abandon to coverage that they do when solid tackling is the only barrier to six points.
On the other hand, only six kickoffs have been returned for TDs in 2011 to date—less than one per week, which is far off the pace that produced 23 such scores in 2010. Indeed, the only players padding their stats under the new rules are the kickers.
In 2010, Baltimore’s Billy Cundiff was the league’s lone legman to see more than 50% of his kicks result in touchbacks; he consistently averages over 70 yards per boot. Right now, with 69.7% TBs, he’s ranked only third behind Kansas City’s Ryan Succup at 70.8% and Denver’s Matt Prater at an amazing 85.2%. Fully 15 NFL kickers are currently over 50%.
Fans have lost a lot due to the rule change, as the number of exciting runbacks has been dramatically reduced and return men have been greatly devalued in fantasy football. But there is a silver lining—for in-running betting at sportsbooks, wagering on the kicking game—touchbacks, return yardage and 100-yard scores—has been given entirely new life.
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