Most bettors subscribe to either of two theories about how well NFL teams perform after their annual bye weeks. One camp says they come back rested and ready to win, while the other claims that a week off robs them of momentum.

 

The NFL instituted its current system of one bye week for each team in 1990. In the two decades since then, the overall post-bye records of all teams is just about 52%, suggesting that the bye may provide an advantage, albeit a slight one at best.

 

One can argue that the chance to recuperate is the main benefit of having no game on one Sunday. Assuming that’s true, then teams taking their bye later in the season, say week 9 or 10 when they are likely to be banged up and needing to heal ahead of the playoffs, might get more out of it than those resting in weeks 4 or 5.

 

On the other hand, the bye week gives a coaching staff more time to get ready for coming opponents. It is also an opportunity to make strategic adjustments, which have more impact when made earlier in the season. A team that has lost six or seven games before its week away probably can’t change enough to save the season.

 

When it comes to handicapping, some factors to consider about bye-week teams are whether they enter the bye after a win or a loss, at home or away, and whether the next match-up will be on the road. A long stint with family and friends and sleeping in one’s own bed can do a lot for individual morale as well as team spirit.

 

Also, it’s a good idea to examine which other teams are taking their byes during the same week, especially if they are in the same division. In 2011, for example, three of the four AFC West teams (San Diego, Kansas City and Denver) all got the same Sunday off in Week 6, so theoretically it should not favor any of them more than the other.

 

Bye weeks can wreak havoc on fantasy football line-ups, of course. They can cool down hot players just as easily as they can give roughed up ones a chance to mend. Some teams, like the Philadelphia Eagles under Andy Reid, tend to roar back into play, while others look like they are almost “too rested” and find it difficult to get back into rhythm playing at full speed.

 

Perhaps the biggest benefit of the bye week system is the one that NFL bettors get—17 weeks of regular season action instead of just 16. That one extra weekend of wagering at sportsbooks can make the difference between a winning or losing bankroll going into the all-important post-season, so use it wisely.

 

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