Boxing Betting Lines: Manny Pacquiao vs. Shane Mosle
Boxing Betting Lines: Manny Pacquiao vs. Shane Mosley
by Richard Gardner | Bodog Sportsbook Manager
It’s definitely not the fight that boxing fans wanted to see and it’s definitely not the fight that’s going to help the sport of boxing win its only tussle with the quickly-growing sport of Mixed Martial Arts, but it’s a marquee spring boxing bout nonetheless.
As was the case prior to Manny Pacquiao’s last fight, many of us were hoping to see a signature bout of a generation. Last time, when Pacquiao and Floyd “Money” Mayweather Jr. were in negotiations, they ended up going their separate ways to fight some cupcakes. Pacquiao destroyed Josh Clottey while Mayweather Jr. picked apart “Sugar” Shane Mosley.
This time, they were again at the bargaining table but blood testing specifications couldn’t be agreed upon and Mayweather Jr. completely walked away from the sport – at least for now – while Pacquiao was willing to take on whoever else was ready to bring the fight to him (and offer a big Pay-Per-View pay-day). That man was “Sugar” Shane Mosley.
The reason why this fight is a little bit of a downer is because Pacquiao and Mayweather Jr. are deemed fairly equals, both the pound-for-pound best fighters in the world and both likely Hall of Famers. But in this fight, Pacquiao is taking on Mayweather Jr.’s scraps.
It’s not necessarily a shot at Mosley, or a slight to the bout between him and Pacquiao, which could still be an entertaining night of boxing, but it’s simply that we were hoping for the best and ended up with less than that; we’re left to see a fight that could very well be one-sided.
Pacquiao and Mosley are set to square off this Saturday, May 7th at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. With Mayweather Jr. out of the picture (at least for now), Pacquiao is the world’s top pound-for-pound fighter. He’ll be taking on 39-year-old Mosley, who is just four months shy of his 40th birthday.
As an oddsmaker at Bodog’s online sportsbook, there was simply no other option than to open up this line heavily favoring Pacquiao.
There’s no skirting the fact that Pacquiao is at the top of his game while Mosley is coming off a rather uninspiring split decision win over Sergio Mora, which was his follow-up effort after getting manhandled by Mayweather Jr. last May.
We opened the lines with Pacquiao listed at -675 to win the fight while Mosley receiving a tasty +475. Truth be told, we knew that the lines would have to present a pretty payoff for Mosley for anyone to bet him, and we weren’t sure if it was high enough. The betting public has responded, and since we opened the lines for this fight on January 13th, the action has come in on Mosley.
There are a few dynamics in play here which could explain that as Pacquiao could be looking past his opponent, or he could be more focused on his political career right now, or maybe some bettors have faith in the former three-weight champion Mosley.
Regardless, Pacquiao has dipped to -600 while Mosley is now down to +400. Since the early movement, the action has been steady on both sides of the adjusted line.
As far as the total is concerned, the public feels that there is a better shot that this fight ends sooner rather than later.
From our perspective, we shaded the lines to the under believing that an aging Mosley might not be able to go 12 rounds with the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world, or that Mosley’s power might be able to impact Pacquiao enough to end this fight early as well.
Either way, we seem to agree with the public that it would be tough to see Mosley’s game plan based on the idea of going the distance with Pacquiao.
We opened the lines on the over/under for this fight at 11.5 rounds with the UNDER at -135. That was bet up to -145 rather quickly with the current lines now at -160, so the public is heavily invested on the UNDER.
Those looking to take advantage of a bigger payday in the props section might consider betting both the Mosley and Pacquiao knockout, depending on who they favor to win the fight. Mosley has power packed in his punches and while Mayweather Jr. is a defensive guru and is tough to hit, Pacquiao doesn’t run from anyone and will gladly stand and trade fists.
Keep an eye on the props in the Bodog Sports section as there is a good chance this fight ends in a knockout whether it’s Pacquiao dropping an aged Mosley or “Sugar” Shane connecting with a home run to surprise the Pac Man.
There isn’t anyone in the boxing world that can honestly say they would rather see this fight than Pacquiao-Mayweather and even here in the sportsbook we would project at far greater action for that fight than we’ll see for this Saturday’s bout.
Even so, there’s some good entertainment value here and according to the public, plenty of betting value as well.
Their opinion is that Mosley has a chance to shock the world on Saturday and they also feel that it won’t be a fight that will be decided by the judges’ scorecards.
Tune in to hear Gus Johnson call this bout with the broadcast on SHOWTIME Pay-Per-View on Saturday, May 7th starting at 9:00 p.m. ET.
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