NFL Point Spread – Early Analysis
Comments (0)NFL week 4 lines are out and this is the week of the home underdogs. The reason we make note of this is that one of our time-tested winning formulas concerns betting on home underdogs in the correct circumstance. Home underdogs have covered at almost a 60 percent clip over the last 10 years and there are a great deal of games this week that fit this scenario. We see a number of these games where the home underdog will cover. We have given you our first impressions of these game below and later in the week we will finalize our picks for our subscribers.
Ravens (-4.5) VS. BROWNS: Cleveland is a homedog which they also were in week 2 when they covered and won against the Bengals. The Ravens failed to cover after being up big Sunday against Arizona but their defense is the type that gives young QB’s like Anderson trouble.
Bears (-3) VS. LIONS: Why the Bears are favored here is the questions as this team has some major flaws that they must deal with, particularly the ineffectiveness of QB Rex Grossman. The Lions were destroyed last week against Philly and that’s the type of loss that can shake a team’s confidence. Home underdog scenario is at work here.
COWBOYS (-11) VS. Rams: There is no team other than the Saints that have been the NFL’s bigggest dissapointment as the Rams have shown no life this season and now will lose RB Steven Jackson for this one with injury. 11 is a lot of points and it is possible the Cowboys could let down here after such a big win last Sunday on the road against the Bears.
Packers (-2) VS. VIKINGS: Fishy game here as the Vikings should be about a 7 point underdog against the 3-0 Packers. This game reminds us of the Browns-Bengals game in week 2. The Packers however are so hot that they should be able to handle them here. Another home underdog here.
Texans (-3) VS. FALCONS: Yet another home underdog scenario here as the Falcons played well last week under the same setup but failed to cover against Carolina. The Texans pushed as a home dog last week against the Colts in a wild line as some covered with Indy as they started at -5.5(we won with that number picking the Colts), while some pushed with the -6, and some even won with Houston as the line hit -6.5 Sunday morning.
COLTS (-9.5) VS. Broncos: Good one here as the Colts take on the Broncos. Denver was shocked by Jacksonville at home last week and things could turn sour quick with another loss. Expect a better performance by them in this game. The Colts on the other hand have destroyed Denver over the years, which include two playoff wins.
DOLPHINS (-3.5) VS. Raiders: Two bad teams meet in Miami with the dreaded 3.5 spread.
Jets (-3.5) VS. BILLS: The Bills will go with backup QB Trent Edwards as JP Losman will miss a few weeks with injury. The Jets did well at home in beating Miami last week and things could be turning around after a tough beginning to their season.
Eagles (-3) VS. GIANTS: Giants are home underdogs in primetime against an Eagles team that put up a ridiculous offensive showing last week.
Steelers (-5.5) VS. CARDINALS: The Steelers are 3-0 ATS so far this year and they go to the dessert to take on a Cardinals team that most likely will go with backup QB Kurt Warner which could give them a boost.
CHARGERS (-12) VS. Chiefs: The Chargers are playing poorly as they are now 1-2 after a tough loss on the road against Green Bay. The Chiefs got on the board last week against the Vikings but this team can’t score at all. Both RB’s in this one (LT and L. Johnson) have struggled.
Seahawks (-1.5) VS. 49ERS: 49ers are the home underdog here as they take on a Seahawks team that comes off an impressive in over the Bengals. 49ers RB Frank Gore ran wild on Seattle in both games last year.
Patriots (-7) VS. BENGALS: Yet another home underdog and this one is on MNF as the Bengals take on the Patriots.
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